Open Web Ad Supply Is Shrinking: What the 2026 Data Means for US Publishers

Many publishers feel it before they can measure it: fewer visits from search and social, fewer pageviews, fewer ad requests. Now there's benchmarking data that puts numbers on it. A July 2026 report from the ad platform Ozone, shared with Digiday, found a steep drop in publisher ad requests in the second quarter, alongside a rise in prices that only partly offset the lost volume.

Figures below come from one company's data for a group of premium publishers. They're useful as a signal but may not match your own site or the whole market.

What the Data Showed

Ozone tracked roughly 20 billion impressions from its premium publisher members, a group that includes large news organizations. According to the report:

• Ad request volumes fell roughly 32 to 37 percent year over year in the US between April and June 2026, and roughly 39 to 41 percent in the UK.
• Programmatic spend across the combined US and UK group was down about 30.6 percent year over year in the first half of 2026. The UK fell about 14.3 percent, while the US fell about 44 percent because the price increase was smaller.
• Prices rose. Average eCPMs in June were about 7 percent higher year over year in the US and about 30 percent higher in the UK.
• Apps held up better. In June, apps were the only channel to grow year over year, with US spend up about 23 percent and eCPMs up about 42 percent, while web spend remained roughly 38.5 percent below the same period a year earlier.
• Video split. In stream video pricing was broadly flat year over year, while out stream video spend was down roughly 76 percent in June.

Why Supply Is Shrinking

The report's explanation is that fewer clicks reach publisher sites. When search and social platforms answer questions or hold attention inside their own products, there are fewer pageviews, and therefore fewer ad calls to sell. Ozone's operating chief described platforms, particularly Google, providing content directly rather than sending people to the underlying website.

Not all of the drop is passive. An industry analyst quoted in the coverage noted that some publishers are deliberately cutting ad load and low value bid requests to protect attention and price.

Why Prices Are Rising

When supply shrinks and buyers still want quality inventory, remaining impressions become scarcer and more valuable. Ozone's team called rising eCPMs a healthy sign in one sense, because it shows scarce inventory is worth more, but they noted spend still falls when there is less to sell. The data also showed prices were already rising in early 2025, suggesting the market had become driven by yield even before this year's deeper volume drop.

How Far Can Yield Carry Publishers?

Analysts quoted in the coverage disagree about the limit. One argued that any shift from the open web to walled gardens will be driven more by data availability, measurement credibility, and convenience than by price alone. Another predicted the repricing in the US will accelerate, since the US open web is larger and has a long tail of commodity supply that dilutes yields.

What Publishers Can Do

Treat every impression as scarcer. When volume is falling, unsold impressions cost more than they used to. Make sure fill rate is strong across all inventory, not just premium placements.

Prove quality. Analysts quoted in the report said publishers that can show meaningful signals, such as first party, contextual, or attention data, are better positioned to meet buyers' quality thresholds.

Be selective about supply. Cutting low value requests can protect price, but cut thoughtfully, based on data.

Diversify channels. The data points to apps, newsletters, subscriptions, and logged in environments as more resilient, where publishers have more control over discovery and pricing.

Don't leave remnant inventory unmanaged. In a shrinking market, a static fallback that fills only a third of leftover impressions is an expensive habit.

Where Remnant Inventory Fits

If requests are down by a third, the impressions that remain have to work harder. Moving unsold impressions from a static fallback to real time, per impression evaluation is one of the more direct ways to recover revenue without needing more traffic. It doesn't replace diversifying your audience, but it improves the yield on the pageviews you already have.

Frequently Asked Questions

Key Takeaways

• Ozone's data showed US publisher ad requests down roughly a third year over year in Q2 2026, with programmatic spend down sharply in the first half.
• Prices rose, but not enough in the US to offset lost volume.
• Apps were the one channel that grew, while web spend remained well below last year.
• Publishers can respond by proving quality, diversifying channels, and making sure every remaining impression, including remnant, is monetized well.